Toxomerus watsoni confusion

I've noticed that many Toxomerus observations, especially in Mexico, are being identified as Toxomerus watsoni: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations?place_id=any&subview=grid&taxon_id=418205
However, I've tried looking through all the papers I can find, and can't find any way to separate T. watsoni from similar species like T. duplicatus without a microscope.

I put all the similar individuals like that with simple abdomen patterns under one observation field so I can compare them here: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations?field:Toxomerus%20identifiable%20group=T.%20cf.%20duplicatus

After doing this, I noticed that many of the individuals that are identified as T. watsoni look a bit different from unidentified individuals.
For example, these two are both males but they look different:
https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/8735045
https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/18581132

The one that is called "T. watsoni" has a thinner, tubular abdomen, the dark bands are mostly black, and the last abdomen segment has a different pattern.
The other one has a flat, wide, abdomen, the dark bands are lighter grey, and the last abdomen segment has just a black dot.
I see similar differences in females, although the abdomen structure is less different:
https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/18227103
https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/12283401

But I don't know if that's still not enough to identify them to species.

Other similar groups within the "T. cf. duplicatus" group

1. Ones identified as T. watsoni have a consistent look
2. Orange centre of abdomen sections, pair of commas, blue/silver between with black borders
3. Long thin abdomen

4. Orange bands, pairs of commas, shiny blue stripes with little or not black borders (thinner)
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/11915414
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/20805941
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/12283401

5. Orange or yellow bands, little or no commas, blue/shiny stripes with little or no black borders
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/19827828
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/11928637
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/17277614
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/484716

6. Orange or yellow bands, no commas, blue stripes with black borders
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/21087951
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/15864324
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/20510754
   https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/19625973

Most have dark ring near end of hind femur, but in some it's faint or not there.
Ones in Florida vary between groups 2 and 3: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations?place_id=21&subview=grid&field:Toxomerus%20identifiable%20group=T.%20cf.%20duplicatus
What species is this?

I've been trying to make a list of species that fall into the general group of simple band patterns: https://www.inaturalist.org/observation_fields/8909#activity_comment_1835840

T. brevifacies
T. buscki
T. corbis/planiventris?
T. difficilis
T. duplicatus
T. ecuadoreus
T. idalius
T. minutus?
T. norma
T. papaveroi
T. paraduplicatus
T. pinchinchae
T. productus
T. puellus
T. steatogaster
T. taenius
T. watsoni

הועלה ב-ינואר 10, 2019 11:34 אחה"צ על ידי upupa-epops